In this report we present an indepth analysis on demographic change and economic growth and. Population aging and economic growth in china judith banister, david e. To answer this question, econometric analyses such as unit root test, johansen cointegration test, and granger causality test are used to examine the longrun relationship between population growth and economic performance in the philippines. Economic growth and the demographic transition david e. This demographic transition changed the regions age structure. The author provides such a new view on economic growth, using a methodology of system dynamics. Since 1990, east asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors.
This research was conducted within the rand center for asia pacific policy, part of international programs at the rand corporation. Impact of population aging on asias future growth asian. Demographic trends, policy influences, and economic. These results imply that future demographic change will tend to depress growth rates in east asia, while it will promote more rapid economic growth in southeast and south asia. Demographic change and economic growth in asia harvard. Bloom, david canning and jaypee sevilla nber working paper no.
Asia and pacific department a new look at the determinants of growth in asian countries prepared by manuk ghazanchyan, janet g. Population aging, economic growth, and economic security in asia sanghyop lee, andrew mason, and donghyun park october 2011 sanghyop lee is fellow, population and health, eastwest center, and associate professor, department. The effects of the demographic transition on economic growth. It helps economic development and it retards economic development. Economic growth of selected asian countries, 19902000. In this paper, we reexamine the role of the demographic transition in explaining crosscountry differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on east asia. In this report we present an in depth analysis on demographic change and economic growth and. Mellon center for curricular and faculty development, the office of. The study estimates the effect of population ageing on future productivity growth in asia and finds that this effect could reduce the annual per capita gdp growth rate by 0. What role did population change play in east asias rapid economic development. Syud amer ahmed, pinyi chen, marcio cruz and bryce quillin. Dec, 2016 the study estimates the effect of population ageing on future productivity growth in asia and finds that this effect could reduce the annual per capita gdp growth rate by 0. Mellon center for curricular and faculty development, the office of the provost and the office of the president.
We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a. This paper analyzes asias dramatic economic growth during the past thirty years and explores the prospects for continued growth during the next thirty years. Due to increased growth in southeast asia, the gdp growth rates in asean countries are converging with that of china close to 6%. Demographic change and economic growth springerlink.
Demographic change and economic growth with focus on the brics philip schellekens lead economist, dec prospects group with thanks to. It focuses on one of the traditional pillars of growth, the role of investment, but also considers the impact on growth. Effects of population growth and urbanization in the pacific islands more than 35 percent of the people of the pacific islands live and work in towns, and the rate of urban population growth throughout most of the region is high figure 1. Demographic change and economic growth in asia cid working paper no. Success stories from asia forty years ago, the countries of east and southeast asia were among the most densely populated in the world. An increase in this share can also come about by a disproportionate increase in the survival of. Workers remittances and economic growth in south asia. Demographic changes in asia and japans economic and. Stotsky, and qianqian zhang1 authorized for distribution by david cowen august 2015 abstract this study examines the drivers of growth in asian countries, with focus on the role of investment.
Economic outlook for southeast asia, china and india 2018 oecd. Economic growth itself will be correlated to the age structure of the population. Pdf identifying factors that influence the pace of national economic growth is a timeworn activity of economists. The harmful effects of the aging asian population on the economy. In most countries of the region, natural resources were limited, populations were growing, and standards of living were low.
The purpose of the thesis is to examine how demographic transition affects economic growth with the japanese economy as an extreme example. Demographic changes in asia and japans economic and financial developments. A linear regression model elizabeth kowalski 00 illinois wesleyan university this article is brought to you for free and open access by the ames library, the andrew w. This paper takes a new look at key determinants of growth in asia. This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in asia during 196590. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia edited by donghyun park principal economist, economics and research department, asian development bank adb, philippines sanghyop lee professor of economics, university of hawaii at manoa, hawaii and adjunct fellow, eastwest center, hawaii, usa andrew mason. An aging population coupled with a declining birthrate points to a decline in economic growth. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging asia. There are some contributions that study the causes of. However, cultural attitudes concerning obedience are found to be negatively associated with economic growth of the countries.
Econometric estimates of a growth accounting model, including demographic factors, are used to discuss the effect of demographic change on the growth rate of the economy. They find that as much as onethird of east asias economic miracle between 1965 and 1990 can be explained by. Demographic and technological changes in china present opportunities for some countries to replace. Assuming population growth decreases economic growth one for one ie, additional people. Comment on demographic change and economic growth in asia.
The optimistic view of the potential for development suggested by idea. In addition to mortality decline, dyson 2010 has identified population growth, fertility and agestructural change as well as urban growthurbanization as demographic factors that affect economic growth. Various authors have found that population dynamics can explain between 1. Demographic change and economic growth in asia david e. A reliable answer to the question is important because the extraordinary economic record of east asian countries during their highgrowth era 196090 is central to current development policy debates. Population aging and economic growth in china springerlink. The present study empirically examines the impact of the various. Real gdp growth in six southeast asian countries indonesia, malaysia, the philippines, singapore, thailand and viet nam. We explore how demographic changes in the asia and pacific region are likely to influence economic growth and other features of the regional economy. Population change and economic development in east asia. The deducted result of the theoretical model shows that the share of workingage population is positively correlated with economic growth, whereas birth rate has an adverse impact.
After i finish, i am looking forward to exchanging views with you about my presentation, economic performance in the region, and measures undertaken to revitalize the economy. Reforms in social security and diminished adherence to filial piety make for a transformative situation for identifying the responsible agent for elder support and care. Apr 16, 2015 this is just one of the stories that will be discussed at the world economic forum on east asia 2015, which is taking place in jakarta, indonesia, from 1921 april. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asia s strong economic growth performance a miracle. In addition to mortality decline, dyson 2010 has identified population growth, fertility and agestructural change as well as urban growth urbanization as demographic factors that affect economic growth. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia. This is just one of the stories that will be discussed at the world economic forum on east asia 2015, which is taking place in jakarta, indonesia, from 1921 april. The relationship between demographic change and economic. The economic consequences of demographic change in east.
We find that a crosscountry model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in china and india. Afterwards, they increase again towards a growth rate of 1. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in east asia as well as more specific. The industrial revolution that brought unprecedented economic growth to western europe and north america also coincided with a new epoch in population dynamics galor, 2005. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia. The harmful effects of the aging asian population on the.
Source united nations, department of economic and social affairs, population division 2012. Economic growth of selected asian countries, 19902000 asian countries real gdp growth rate 19902000 unit. East asia appeared to be bleak because of the limited supply of agricultural land. The demography of south asia from the 1950s to the 2000s a summary of changes and a statistical assessment south asia, for the purposes of this chronicle, is composed of eight countries, namely afghanistan, bangladesh, bhutan, india, the maldives, nepal, pakistan and sri lanka1. Different speeds of population growth in the subregions will shift the regions.
Effect of population growth on economic development in india. The impact of an ageing population on economic growth. Up to a point, population growth can be accommodated. The contribution of population health and demographic.
On the other hand, the exchange rate regime influences how countries adjust to real and nominal shocks. Demographic change and economic growth in south asia. The bidirectional causality in south east asia abstract this study has demonstrated new evidence sustaining the idea that variation in demographic factors is an important determinant of growth in per capita income. It is apparent from the table, however, that even in this most successful subperiod africas growth lagged behind that of the rest of the world. Population growth plays a conflicting role in the development process of a country. Bloom and canning 2005 studied global economic change and its economic significance. Relative labour abundance will bring higher capital. In 2007 the population in this region totalled nearly 1. The impact of an ageing population on economic growth 9 words, economic growth may also influence the determinants of an ageing population. Please do not cite without permission from the authors abstract in 1994 the world bank called east asias strong economic growth performance a miracle. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor forcetopopulation ratio due to fertility decline. With the exception of indonesias large petroleum reserves, the countries were poorly endowed in natural resources. Overall, eight of the twentytwo pacific countries are now predominantly urban.
A new look at the determinants of growth in asian countries. Accelerating rates of population growth were also a serious concern. Therefore, i would like to look at this issue today and talk about demographic change, as well as the demographic outlook in the region over the next few decades. His current research is concerned with the economic lifecycle, intergenerational issues, and the eff ects of population change on development, economic growth, and public and private transfer systems. Over the longer term, technological change in general and the emergence of the. Pdf effect of population growth on economic development. Finlay harvard school of public health september 2008 draft. Demographic change and economic growth in asia bloom. Asias regional economic growth, development and regional integration processes. To the greek philosophers, about 2,500 years ago, population growth was undesirable as it adversely affects economic development. Hence, the inequality in age structure a greater propor. Aging, economic growth, and oldage security in asia edited by donghyun park.
Will aging have a negative effect on economic growth in asia. The per capita gdp growth and productivity has been studied by marattin and salotti 2009. Demographic transitions and economic miracles in emerging. Within the next decade, chinas labour force will begin to contract, while that of india will expand faster than its population. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross. We find evidence those cultural attitudes toward trust. Population aging and economic growth in asia 65 in fertility that reduces the number of youth, and thus with no change in the size of the elderly population, the elderly share increases. Demographic change and economic growth in asia ideasrepec. Population trends in asia and the pacific united nations escap. Chapter 1 effects of population growth and urbanization in. He earned a phd in economics from the university of.
The paper tests the impact of demographic change on chinas economic growth by using 19832008 provincial panel data. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, pgda working papers 4108, program on the global demography of aging. Demographic change and economic growth in asia, cid working papers 15, center for international development at harvard university. Pdf demographic change and economic growth in south asia. This first edition of the southeast asian economic outlook suggests that the rebalancing process is already underway. The demography of south asia from the 1950s to the 2000s a. The economic consequences of demographic change in east asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. Sep 30, 2018 an aging population coupled with a declining birthrate points to a decline in economic growth. Geography, demography, and economic growth in africa. Demographic determinants of economic growth in brics and.
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